Understanding Visa Bulletin Retrogression

A green-card cutoff usually inches forward each month — but not always. When a cutoff moves backward, or when a category is marked U (unavailable), that is retrogression. It is the most jarring event an applicant can open the bulletin to find, yet it follows one simple rule: when the annual supply of visa numbers for a category or country runs out, the date gives way until new numbers open in a later fiscal year.

Why retrogression happens

Employment-based immigration runs on annual numerical limits. The worldwide employment ceiling is about 140,000 visas per year (plus any unused family numbers), and no single country may receive more than about 7% of the worldwide total. When demand from a particular country exceeds its annual share, that country’s allocation is consumed early. Once it is gone, the Department of State has no numbers left to issue, so the cutoff retrogresses to protect against overshooting the statutory cap.

India EB2: a verified retrogression example

The India EB2 second-preference category shows retrogression in the verified timeline below.

India EB2 climbed steadily from 15JUL12 in August 2024 to 15JUL14 by May 2026, then retrogressed to U (unavailable) in July 2026 and stayed U in August 2026. That jump to unavailable is the textbook signature of annual numbers being exhausted for that country and category before the fiscal year closed.

What retrogression does — and does not — do

Retrogression pauses final action for dates that are no longer current. It does notcancel your priority date or your underlying petition. Applicants who already filed or were approved conditionally generally keep their place; they simply wait for numbers to reopen. When a new fiscal year begins and fresh allocations arrive, the cutoff can move forward again. The direction and speed of that recovery depend on demand and on how many numbers are available — which cannot be predicted with a guaranteed date.

Reading retrogression in your own case

If your category shows a “U” or a date that moved backward, treat it as a temporary pause driven by the annual cap, not a setback to your case. Track the monthly bulletin and compare against the verified archive so you can see retrogression and recovery as part of a longer pattern rather than a one-month surprise.